Every rent decision the First-tier Tribunal (Property Chamber) makes is published on gov.uk — and almost nobody reads them. We did. We analysed all 5,779 published rent decisions from December 2018 to August 2026, including 3,158 open-market rent cases — the Section 13 challenges brought by ordinary tenants in England — and extracted what the landlord asked for and what the tribunal actually set.
This is what really happens when a tenant challenges a rent increase.
The headline numbers
- 59% of measured cases ended below the landlord's ask. Of 1,460 decisions where both figures could be extracted, the tribunal set the rent lower than proposed in 866.
- The median cut was 9.3% — about £100 a month (£1,200 a year) off the proposed figure.
- 24% of cases confirmed the landlord's figure (within 1%).
- 17% of historical cases went the other way — the tribunal set a rent above the proposal. That outcome is now abolished for notices under the Renters' Rights Act 2025.
- The tribunal is roughly three times busier than it was in 2019, and 2026 is on course to be its busiest year on record.
How often tenants win a reduction
Among the 1,460 clean proposed-vs-determined pairs, outcomes split three ways:
The trend is moving the tenant's way, too: in the 2026 decisions published so far, 64% of measured cases ended in a reduction — the highest share in the dataset.
How much tribunals cut
When the tribunal did reduce the rent, the typical cut was 9.3% of the proposed figure — a median of £100 per calendar month, or £1,200 a year. Cuts cluster in the 5–15% band — panels rarely slash a proposal in half, because the legal test is open-market rent, not affordability. What moves the number is evidence: comparable local lettings, and the property's actual condition. Decisions routinely knock money off for damp, dated kitchens and bathrooms, missing white goods, or disrepair the landlord hasn't addressed — in one Haringey case the panel valued the flat at £425 a week in good condition, then deducted 10% for condition to land at £382.50.
The risk the RRA abolished
The most under-reported number in this dataset: in 1 in 6 historical cases the tenant ended up with a HIGHER rent than the landlord had asked for. Under the old Section 14 rules the tribunal's job was to find the open-market rent — even if that meant going above the proposal. It was the strongest argument against challenging, and letting agents used it.
The Renters' Rights Act 2025 removed it. For rent-increase notices under the new regime (from 1 May 2026), the tribunal can only confirm or lower the proposed rent, and the new rent is never backdated. On the number itself, a challenge is now strictly no-lose.
Outcomes by region
London stands out twice: it's the hardest region to win a reduction in (48.7% of measured cases, against ~60% everywhere else) — but when London panels do cut, the cash saving is the largest, a median £150 a month (£1,800 a year). Landlords in the capital more often propose figures the panel finds defensible; when they overreach, they overreach in bigger numbers.
What winning tenants submitted
We went back through the decision texts to code the evidence each side provided. Three patterns stand out:
- Tenants who submitted their own comparable rents won 72.5% of measured cases, against 60.4% for tenants who provided none — the biggest evidence effect in the dataset.
- Condition evidence pays twice: cases raising damp, disrepair or similar issues had a 67% reduction rate (vs 53% without), and where the tribunal physically inspected the property the median cut jumped to 16.6%.
- Landlords asked for a median increase of 17.9%; the tribunal granted 10.5% — panels roughly halved the proposed increase in the 1,069 cases stating all three figures.
The full breakdown — including what happens if you don't respond at all — is in What evidence wins at the rent tribunal?
A tribunal getting busier
Decisions published for 2026 already number 471 — and because gov.uk publishes decisions weeks or months after they're made, the final 2026 count will land well above 2024's record 590. More tenants are challenging, and the RRA's no-increase rule will push that further.
Methodology and caveats
- Source: all 5,779 decisions in the Rents category of gov.uk's residential property tribunal decisions finder, December 2018 – 7 August 2026. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
- Scope: outcome analysis covers the 3,158 open-market rent (assured shorthold tenancy) cases. The 2,621 fair-rent cases concern pre-1989 regulated tenancies under different law and are excluded from outcome stats.
- Extraction: determined rents were parsed from the published decision text (94% success). The landlord's proposed figure is stated less consistently — we obtained clean proposed-vs-determined pairs for 1,460 cases (46% of open-market cases) and applied sanity bounds. Outcome percentages describe those measured cases, not every case.
- Normalisation: weekly rents converted to calendar months (×52⁄12). Reductions within 1% counted as "confirmed".
- Lag: publication trails the decision by weeks to months, so recent-period counts understate reality.
- Want the underlying data for reporting or research? We're happy to share extracts — get in touch.
Frequently asked questions
What is the rent tribunal success rate for tenants?
Across 1,460 First-tier Tribunal open-market rent decisions (2018–2026) where both the landlord's proposed rent and the tribunal's determined rent could be extracted, 59% ended with the tribunal setting a rent below the landlord's proposal. The median reduction was 9.3% — about £100 a month, or £1,200 a year. A further 24% confirmed the proposed figure.
How much does the rent tribunal usually reduce rent by?
When the tribunal reduced the rent, the median cut was 9.3% of the proposed figure — roughly £100 per calendar month, or £1,200 a year, at typical rents. London cuts were larger in cash terms (median £150 a month, £1,800 a year) because rents are higher; the North's were smaller (£75 a month, £900 a year).
Can the rent tribunal increase my rent?
Not any more, for notices under the Renters' Rights Act 2025 regime (from 1 May 2026): the tribunal can only confirm or lower the proposed rent. Historically this risk was real — in about 1 in 6 of the pre-RRA cases we analysed, the tribunal determined a rent above what the landlord had proposed.
How many rent cases does the tribunal decide each year?
Published open-market rent decisions roughly tripled between 2019 (192) and 2024 (590), and 2026 is on course to be the busiest year yet — 471 decisions published so far despite gov.uk's publication lag of several months.
Is it worth taking my rent increase to the tribunal?
The data says a challenge is far from hopeless: a majority of measured cases ended below the landlord's ask, and under the RRA 2025 the tribunal cannot raise the rent above the proposal, so the downside on the number itself is gone. But most disputes still settle by negotiation first — check your rent against local data, send a counter-offer with evidence, and treat the tribunal (Form MR1, £47, deadline before the new-rent date) as the backstop.